Written by: Ubong Sampson
Politically, at the national level and for states still using the 1999 calendar of political tenure, the year 2021 represents the 2017 of 2019, the 2013 of 2015 and so counting back to 1999. As the practice has been, all political aspirations will hardly await the second year anniversary of the current tenure to start raising their heads of desperation. Usually worse when the incumbent chief executive is serving out their second term and must be succeeded, since constitutional provision in this regard gives no room for them to recontest for the same office.
In Akwa Ibom, the patience had barely waited for the incumbent to take his second oath of office before running out, and it took an appealing message of warning to put interests to calm, at least, to allow the incumbent pick a little focus on his renewed mandate and try meeting public expectation. So being forced to place their patience in life support was more than enough favour to the outserving administration, as its second year anniversary in June was the last limit of stretch.
However, it appears the administration itself was even more impatient about its succession, as more of the issues causing these fusses have emanated from its end.
Well, it is no issue that everyone wants to have their most closest person in government which heightens their chances of being in government and narrows their proximity to the corridors of power, it is also no issue when there is a wide belief that there is so much money in government to feed their dreams of making money and establishing a life of luxury. Of course, there is always money in government. However, there are more issues when no one seems to be paying attention to global changes that may overnight turn this belief into a myth.
Not very recently, while habitually running through daily news platforms, I happened into a news that America’s President, Joe Biden had signed an executive order that is to focus the country’s attention on developing electricity powered cars and ensuring that at least half of America’s population will be patronising the electric cars by the year 2025. The issue of electric cars has been a recurrent topic of discussion in the global economic market, especially in the last decade. In several fora, discussants have made juxtapositions on the advantages and challenges of having vehicles with such feature. And while it appeared that such change might take eternity to be accepted, it is gradually becoming a reality. You may wish to accept as reason that, in such cases, the manufacturers and investors in that innovation usually collect these identified deficiencies as discussed, take them back to their drawing board and work towards improving the product. However, this happens more in the developed and genuinely developing worlds.
For Nigeria, innovations like this are expected to meet her first as a threat to her fossil fuel (crude) dependent economy, then the call for concern and need for diversification. Only sadly that this concern and need have only been heard in discussions, summits, seminars and symposiums, since the break of this innovation till date, without any action being taken as a measure of proactivenesss, and unsurprisingly, might so remain till the reality takes us unawares.
Admitted, the US does not share the same oil market with us. Theirs is the WTI while we belong to brexit market. However, this does not take away the fact that our oil economy stands threatened by every step of progress this innovation makes. America’s remains an influential economy even beyond whichever extent to which her victory in the 30-year cold war with the the Soviet Union had earned her the economic expansion interest she desired. As one of the model economies and a strong actor in the G7, a proven success in her initiative can influence a change in the global order.
Meanwhile, down here, our pace at proactivenesss towards adapting to global changes have been flowing in a snail-speed. We are good at spending resources on summits to discuss solutions, yet settle back handicaply to take whatever negative consequences these changes tell on us. And my worry for these 2023 power strugglers is, with what is likely to befall us and our economy in half a decade from now, where will this government we’re fighting, abusing each order to get into, find the money to spend on the basic needs and leave some to spare for them to live their dreams?
The Covid-19 break and its attendant effects on the economy was supposed to be an eye opener, yet our slow tendency to learning still glares. While we were even lucky to sell oil at as low as $11/barrel, the WTI market price had totally crashed and America even once reported having to be paying between $1-2/barrel for her oil to be lifted from the storage to create spaces. That was more like selling at minus one or two dollars per barrel. The only negative side for Nigeria in that situation was that there were no demands and our oil staying on the sea each day consumes about 10 to 12 thousand dollars for demurrage (I stand to be corrected though). This was so because nations had turned their focus to the fight against the virus and other basic needs while several world economy-running markets were shut. How much have we learnt from these signs that gave us a picture of what the times would be like if our very dependent oil trade fails?
Not that the situation has gone any better. Oil price has been able to stabilise at $57/barrel because of OPEC’s regulation that distributes supply quota and checks surplus supply, else would we still be producing and supplying oil without demand? To who? Good, if things can remain this way. But there are higher indications that in the next decade or two, our only oil markets will be those interested in refining and selling the finished products back to us. But then, that will depend on if the government will place a ban on the importation of these soon to come electricity powered vehicles to keep Nigerians still needing the petroleum motor spirit (PMS) for their cars. For when these cars begin to penetrate the country, citizens will prefer having at least one each of the fuel and electricity powered cars for convenience. Reason, I will explain as the foregoing progresses.
Somehow, Nigerians had seen the initial stage of this innovation likely not sellable here, at least, not for now that power supply is still a big challenge. In a comedy skit, famous comedian, Ime Bishop (Okon Lagos) was mocking a report of the federal government welcoming the introduction of the electric car in the country, particularly referring to an event where Vice President Osinbajo was test driving a made in Nigeria brand of the car. As expressed in the skit, he was not seeing the need for such car in a country still struggling with power supply. While the comedian had a valid point, the innovation has tilted towards a solar source of power for the car. So while admitting that the need for petroleum products, especially PMS will linger a little longer, we cannot deny the possibility of this need being drastically reduced by the revolution of electric cars that is now more likely to happen. Hence, explaining why a Nigerian with the ability to afford two cars will likely prefer having one each of both the electricity and Petroleum powered ones, this will likely be to have the latter serving during the rainy season, and the former serving during the dry season, where the weather condition will permit enough sunlight to power the solar source. Now feel free to picture a crude oil dependent Nigerian economy in a world where the need for fossil fuel is reduced by half and internally, the need for it is directly proportional to the climate. Well for me, and on a lighter note, I can picture as deep as where the pride in petroleum products operators and fuel pump attendants is being reduced by half.
With these possibilities, is there any reason to justify these blind struggles for access to the national cake, when the future of this cake is seriously under threat? Not trying to deny my rooting for one of the interests. But then, in my rooting for this man, I tend to be, on the one hand, praying for the success of his ambition, and on the other hand, fearing for him. Truth be told, we cannot tell how worse the situation of things will be in another year or two. The state of insecurity in the country is enough setback for the economy. Who will want to export such required huge amount of resources to come invest in a country that almost every region is facing one form of insecurity challenge or the other? So rather than attracting, we can only be losing more investments. This justifies my fear for the next man who might find his reign struggling to sail due to dire economic challenges, and who, will have to hit the ground running, scratching the rocks to find more means of generating funds, yet without having to consider such means that will tighten the rope already strangling the people whose living conditions have only but worsened in the last couple of years. Making matters worse, this cannot be as easy as it is written down, bearing in mind that with the way the country is structured, a lot of the determinants of economic stimulation is rested on the national government.
Fact is, we tend to depend more on our faith and optimism and I do not intend to stay on the pessimistic side. So I can agree with the positive belief of still having open chances, despite having plundered all of our wealth brought about by the many years of oil boom. The PIA act appears to be one of such flashes of hope, as the act seeks to encourage diversification through exploring our rich gas resource and the now globally embraced renewable energy. Also, the new NNPC reform proposes a new path to privatising the NNPC– theoretically enabling external fund raising. Though the timing of the privatisation is unclear, it is understood that the bill includes initiatives to amend oil and gas royalties, aiming to make the sector more attractive to investment, changes to certain key petroleum sector regulatory bodies, environmental and social components, as well as initiatives to promote gas monetisation.
Oil and gas currently accounts for roughly 10% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product, and petroleum exports provide approximately 86% of total export revenues– a crucial source of dollar earnings for Africa’s largest economy. With estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves reported as of the end of 2019, Nigeria’s wealth of petroleum resources has the potential to build prosperity and crucial infrastructure for the people of Nigeria for decades to come. Yet, the country’s natural gas potential, the largest in Africa with unproven reserves estimated at 600 trillion cubic feet, remains underdeveloped. If only the authority will be committed to this new path, then we can all agree on still having a chance at witnessing genuine progress.
In fussing over who stood their ambition down for who, and who rejected billions of naira for who, who stood alone in loyalty to who, and who should be rewarded for what, may it also be part of our concern, even as we selfishly advocate for our closest persons to take over the Hilltop Mansion and other positions of authority come 2023, who and who will be able to reduce their greed and desires for wealth, as well as who and who will be able to reject enticingly inducing offers in loyalty to the nation and our collective interests. Or who, in the worst of situations, will not only have the capacity to devise means of creating wealth, but will be willing to pursue same above their personal desires. For looking at it from whichever angle, there is very little the current set in power will be able to do with the time left. Hence, the responsibility already shifting to the succeeding sets in the immediate, near and far future.
Finally, the most dangerous part of this approach to 2023 is where people have either began to assume God, use the name of God in their personal and selfish plots, or totally disregard the place of God. Well, God is all patient and merciful and not quick to anger. But in assuming God, may they remember to at least stay safe and alive till this so much fussed about 2023 comes. The parable of the rich fool is still fresh in our memories, isn’t it?
Ubong, writes from Isolation.
